Valheim 1.0.20 · Forge of Potential

Forge of Potential Probability Calculator

The chance to reach each quality level with the idols and materials you have. It plays out the game's own upgrade rules and never uses your character name or save file.

Item

One material per line, then the amounts for Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 as on the wiki item page. Use - for none. Paste any weapon or armor here. Add "(no refund)" after an ingredient the game never returns on a break.

The highest level this character has already attempted for this item at the Forge, since patch 1.0.20. Leave empty if never. If this character upgraded the item to its current level, enter at least that level.

What you have
Rules When the last copy is at risk

Future upgrades

Reach the levelKeep an item below itLose the item
LevelReach itOutcomeLose the itemKept belowIdols used (avg)

How to read the percentages

  • A percentage tells you how often something happens across many tries.
  • A distribution tells you all the possible results and how common each one is.
  • Your own result is one point from that distribution. You can make a good result more likely, but you cannot make it certain.

Read the full explanation with examples →

How the numbers are calculated

  • Each attempt uses one idol and succeeds 65% of the time. A failure destroys the item. Each row is a separate plan: aim for that level, then stop.
  • After a break, a new copy is crafted and upgraded to the normal max level at its station, if your materials allow it. Part of the cost comes back on each break.
  • On a break the game returns 35% of the base recipe plus the upgrade cost of the level the item had, rounded up. Above level 4, each extra level counts as half a level in that cost. Idols are never returned, and neither is an ingredient marked "(no refund)", such as Liquid Frost. This rule is from the game data and was checked in game.
  • Since patch 1.0.20 each attempt uses a seed stored in the character. The first attempt at a level starts from a seed made from the character's name, and first attempts at consecutive levels are linked: on first attempts, one copy almost never climbs more than 4 levels. After every attempt, success or failure, the game stores a new, unrelated seed, so a recrafted copy gets new results.
  • The page plays out these rules for 40,000 simulated players with unknown names and counts the results. It never uses your character name or save file. Rules as read from the game code by Forge Oracle and ValheimSaveParser.
  • Item costs: Weapons, Armor and Forge of Potential on the Valheim wiki, checked against the 1.0.20 game data in ValheimSaveParser.